Rita, another catastrophe?

As the headlines talk about the escalation of the hurricane Rita from scale 4 to scale 5 , just 3 days before her predicted landfall on the southern US coast line and the pictures of one of our worst nightmares still lingering in our memories, the faith of the populations that may be affected by this and similar disasters looks very dim.

Should we be alarmed about the effects of global climate change in our daily life, on our geo-political system in the years to come? Many studies suggest so, among the latest, a study by the Australian Medical Association on "Climate change health Impacts".

A climate change associated increase in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events (such as droughts, storms, floods and heatwaves) could incrementally and cumulatively harm infrastructure, agriculture and population health, both directly and indirectly. The damage from storms and flooding is likely to be magnified by sea surges in association with the higher sea levels that are inevitable as the oceans warm. Coastal populations, particularly those living on coral atolls (Barnett and Adger 2003) appear particularly vulnerable. This is not only because of rising sea levels and salinated water lenses, but also because of ecological damage to coral (from warmer seas, agricultural runoff, increased dissolved CO2, and loss of biodiversity). This will harm the regulating ecosystem service which coral currently provides against storm surges, although the vulnerability of coral atolls to increased levels of dissolved CO2 has recently been questioned (Kench et al. 2005).

It does not take much imagination to estimate the devastating results:

For most poor people in developing countries, migration (both internal and international) can be the only feasible way to escape poverty, even though migration is never risk free.
Explicit recognition that climate change may substantially increase the size of displaced populations (Myers 1997) and unravel development (Simms et al. 2004) is surprisingly recent, given the multitude of plausible pathways which link all but the most benign climate change scenarios to an exacerbation of regional poverty, to possible increased restrictions upon freedom, and to increased migration pressure.

For the time being, let’s pray that Rita creates less possible damage and that no one would be left behind.